Abstract
In the recent Presidential debates, it was noted that hundreds of thousands of people would be thrown out of work by a ban on fracking. What would be gained by this action? In this presentation, I will consider how much oil, gas, and coal are likely be burned in the long run. The conventional wisdom today is that even with a large expansion in production, there would be no significant pressure on supplies for more than 100 years. For example, in the latest United Nations climate assessment report, carbon-dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in the business-as-usual scenario do not decline until after 2150. I will show that there is little historical evidence that supports this assumption of enormous resources. On the contrary, I will argue that the historical experience suggests that it is more likely that fossil-fuel production will be in a substantial decline in the second half of this century. This gives us a basis for estimating the impacts of energy policy changes.
Biography
Professor Rutledge is the Tomiyasu Professor of Engineering, Emeritus at Caltech, and a former Chair of the Division of Engineering and Applied Science there. He is a winner of the Teaching Award of the Associated Students at Caltech and a Fellow of the IEEE. He is a founder of the Wavestream Corporation, a manufacturer of transmitters for satellite uplinks. He recently published the book Energy Supply and Demand with Cambridge University Press.